温莎吧 » 他们“揭秘”了:为啥特朗普发推越频繁,美股表现就越差?

他们“揭秘”了:为啥特朗普发推越频繁,美股表现就越差?

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 美国投资机构称,美股的涨跌或与总统特朗普发推特相关

Via Reuters

美国投资机构美银美林研究显示,特朗普大量发推文的日子,通常也是美股下跌的日子。

If President Donald Trump wants to keep his strong stock market gains, he may want to stay off Twitter.

如果特朗普总统想要保持美股强劲,他可以少发一些推。

In other words, when Trump tweets more than usual, the stock market tends to fall slightly, on average.

换句话说,如果特朗普比平常发布更多的推文,当日美股的表现就会越差。

The brokerage’s chief equity strategist, Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note that “since 2016, days with more than 35 tweets by Trump have seen negative returns (-9bp), whereas days with less than 5 tweets have seen positive returns (+5bp) — statistically significant.”

美银美林首席证券分析师Savita Subramanian在报告中指出:“自2016年以来,当特朗普日发推量超过35条时,股市回报率为-9个基点;而日发推量少于5条时,股市回报率则达到+5个基点。这个结论是具有统计学意义的。”

Via CNBC

报告发现,发推的内容对美国金融市场也会有影响。如果特朗普在推特上发表威胁中国的经济发展、打赢贸易战等言论,会给美国经济带来不稳定因素。

“Trade talk, political campaigning and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy,” wrote the brokerage’s chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian.

分析师Savita Subramanian写道:“ 贸易谈判、政治竞选类的推文——比如涉及中国、美联储政策和税收政策的推文——就会导致市场波动。”

Via CNBC

摩根大通也发表了一份特朗普推特Volfefe指数,研究特朗普的发帖习惯。

这份Volfefe指数是根据特朗普著名的一条推特"covfefe"命名的。

President Trump unexpectedly unleashed a new word on the world on May 31, 2017, when he tweeted out a confusing partial sentence shortly after midnight.

特朗普总统在2017年5月31日手滑了一下,创造出一个新词。他在午夜发布了一条推特,让人一脸懵X。

"Despite the negative press covfefe," the tweet read, and nothing more.

“别管那些媒体的负面Covfefe”

He soon deleted the tweet, but instead of pretending it never happened, he leaned into it. "Who can figure out the true meaning of 'covfefe' ??? Enjoy!" he said nearly six hours after the original tweet went out.

他很快删除了推特。但是特朗普发现自己一不小心成了全民话题之后,在原推文发布六小时再次发声:“谁能猜到covfefe的真实含义??玩起来!”

Via USA Today

Most of Trump’s tweets come around noon to 2:00 pm, with a 1:00 pm tweet roughly three times as likely to arrive at any other hour of the afternoon or evening, according to J.P. Morgan’s report.

根据摩根大通的报告,特朗普的大部分推文都是中午到下午2点左右发的。下午1点是发推的高峰,发推量是下午或晚上其他时间的三倍。

Trump’s 3:00 am tweets are also more common than 3:00 pm tweets. Trump is presumably asleep from 5:00 am to 10:00 am, according to the report, since there’s a lull in tweeting activity during that time.

凌晨3点发的推特也比下午3点发的推特更多。根据报告,特朗普在凌晨5点钟到早上10点可能在睡觉,发推量明显减少。

Via CNBC

来源CNBC、USA Today返回搜狐,查看更多